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Aug-24-2009
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Introduction:
The war making has undergone paradigm shifting from WWII to Cold War, to Clash of Civilization and now America is entering a period of serial war mode. Ongoing war in the Afpakia region, lessons learned from the Iraq war (2003-08) and internal political compulsions have led America to start preparing for a serial war mode for next few decades. In Iraq America fought a war of choice to establish a friendly regime. The gains made in the Afghanistan war of necessity in 2002 to destroy al Qaeda and Taliban were short lived and in 2009 the Obama Administration is preparing to ensure that al Qaeda and Taliban forces will be destroyed so as not to pose any threat to American security.
Pakistan under American military pressure is fighting an insurgency against tribal radical forces in the Afpakia area. Pakistan is a key but reluctant ally in the Afpakia region as a frontline state for fighting the (2009 - ?) "war of necessity" for America. However, a combination of three factors may force America to fight a war of choice against Pakistan to secure its nuclear weapons. Three factors are:
1. A failure on part of Pakistan to destroy al Qaeda and Taliban lodged in safe heavens of tribal Pakistan,
2. Actions by Pakistan to destabilize Afghanistan to enable surviving al Qaeda and Taliban leaders to occupy it and
3. In American military judgment, if Pakistan"s nuclear assets may be compromised in the hands of radical forces within and outside the army.
The political developments in South Asia, specifically in the Afpakia region, have far reaching implications for American regional hegemony. Some Muslims in West are sympathetic to Islamic causes and they may be viewed as posing internal threats to national security. Some Muslims claim that human rights of Muslims settled in the West are being compromised. Muslim insecurity is induced by feelings of hurt and discrimination associated with a loss of the cultural and scientific supremacy Muslims once enjoyed.
Pakistan is adversely impacted by actions of radicals and weak economy (Kishan Bhatia, http://www.blogs.ivarta.com/PAKISTAN-Impact-Radicals-Weak-Economy/blog-294.htm). Pakistani army and ruling elite"s obsessions with imagined enemy to its east is keeping it from deploying more of its troops to the tribal western front, the Afpakia region. Increasing troop strength is necessary to fight a raging insurgency for a decisive victory against tribal radicals.
Americans and NATO forces have increased military strength in and diversified military supply routes to Afghanistan. Afghanistan is gradually acquiring status of a frontline state due to increased American and NATO presence and also because they are training a substantial Afghan military force to give Afghanistan a chance at establishing viable democracy and not be intimidated by its neighbors to the east or west.
The future stability of South Asia depends on the policies adopted by the rulers of nations to create political conditions that will enable the region to be an economic powerhouse. For Pakistan-India rivalry to turn around and be a dream team engaged in wealth generation the answers lie with youth. Both nations have a youthful population; both nations have most of its population under age 30 and youth have indigenous dormant creative and innovative potentials. Given proper education to stimulate constrained-based innovation process both nation have potential to bloom into next global economic powers. They just have to help develop youth that are educationally empowered to be skilled work force globally in demand. The youth force will also have to be innovative and with ingenuity to develop products, processes and people to solve a customer"s problem by creative improvisation.
Youth in both nations are ready for true education, not the education offered in madrassahs operated by Saudi trained semi-literate teachers in Pakistan that radicalizes them to indulge in hate and intolerance of non-Islamic believers and suppression of human rights of women. The true education programs can and should be designed to stimulate thinking abilities and challenge student"s creative and innovative talents for intellectual development and wealth generation. Lacking true education to stimulate and catalyze thinking the innovative potential of most rural youth will remain dormant.
Given this background I examine and comment on three recent op-eds in the Pakistani media, one article in the Asia Times and one blog by a retired Bangladeshi diplomat.
Wars of Choice and Necessity
America is not the only nations engaged in wars of choice and necessity. South Asia over last six decades has seen several such wars.
In an op-ed, "Time to shun the past" Mr. Iqbal Ahmad Khan (Dawn July 22, 2009) stated:
1. A policy of confrontation with India - and its close cousins militancy and coup d"états - contains within itself the seeds of our destruction and must be avoided like the plague. It has become a millstone around our neck.
2. The real threat to Pakistan comes not from India, but from militant extremism. The second biggest source of instability emanates, also not from India, but from the widespread poverty and the low levels of human development that characterize our society.
Another sensible Pakistani commentator, Dr. Farrukh Saleem asked two pertinent questions, "How can India be persuaded to pull back its postures those Pakistani elites, rulers and the army generals find "offensive formations"? In return for what?"
Answers for such questions are obvious to those who seek peace in South Asia and who are smart enough to analyze statistical data readily available through internet searches. By following a foreign policy that promotes revanchism Pakistan in last six decades has destabilized the South Asia region. By discontinuing a six decades old failed foreign policy of revanchism Pakistan can help stabilize entire South Asia and then focus on improving its economic development by training its huge young human resources in skills globally in demand for wealth generation. The days of waging proxy wars in the neighborhood to gain strategic depth by using radicalized youth are drawing to conclusion.
The following data should help reasonable elites to decide what"s in Pakistan immediate and long term interests.
1. For FY 2009, Pakistan"s official defence spending is set at $4.3 billion while unofficial estimates go as high as $7.8 billion, according to Dr. Farrukh Saleem (The News, July 19, 2009)
2. In my column cited above, I illustrated Pakistan"s increasing dependency on the diplomatic oil to stay afloat. I quoted (Daily Times, June 14, 2009) that Pakistan"s budget of about $31 billion includes a foreign aid component of $9 billion for the year 2009-10.
3. India"s defense budget is 2.7% of its GDP and that of Pakistan about 5% of its GDP. For past six decades India has focused on building it economy, while Pakistan exploited its geography to focus on collecting the diplomatic oil by offering to be a regional bully for its patrons - America, Arabs and China.
4. Pakistan in 1980s allowed establishment of an estimated 20,000 madrassahs funded by Arabs. These schools produced an estimated up to 60 million radical youth over last 30 years. Pakistan"s population of 173 million (2008) is growing 2+% a year and its population is very young - the median age now is 18.2 years. Pakistan"s youth with age below 30 represent more than 55% in a broad based population pyramid.
My answer to two pertinent questions raised by Dr. Saleem is to stop being a rentier state and learn to develop human resources to gain economic strength. It is hard but doable judging from what China and India have so far achieved.
Unlike two exceptions discussed above, more dominant views in the Pakistani press are those by retired generals turned diplomats and columnists. Mr. Shahzad Chaudhry (Kashmir: shifting paradigms, The News?, July 23, 2009) for example offered suggestion for continued military pressure on India to derail its economic growth and to force India to settle the Kashmir problem on Pakistan"s terms. Mr. Chaudhry is a retired Air vice Marshal and former ambassador to Sri Lanka. He ignored the implications of potential threats to Pakistan"s internal stability posed by an estimated 60 million youth radicalized in madrassahs of Pakistan. Mr. Chaudhry, in a personal communication, claimed that radicals are bearded Pakistanis who pray five times a day and induce insecurities for India, not Pakistan, forgetting that the army is fighting internal insurgency in tribal areas and the terrorist attacks are taking place with increasing frequency in Punjab, Karachi and Baluchistan.
The political paradigms in South Asia and Afpakia area have been shifting for more than 5 decades, but bellicose delusional generals, even defeats after defeats have yet to learn to live with emerged realities. Pakistan"s future would be bright if they learned to live in peace and concentrated on developing its huge human resources for generating wealth.
News papers are full of heart wrenching stories describing collateral damages suffered by civilians in the war zones and more than 2 million internally displaced persons or IDPs. Those who carry the identity on their person (beard, hijab, dress, etc) in the West are not immune from suffering unacceptable consequences of war even if they have migrated many thousands of miles away from war zones. In a column, "West and the Islam" at http://www.blogs.ivarta.com/View-West-Islam/blog-295.htm Kazi Anwarul Masud, a Bangladeshi retired diplomat pointed out discrimination felt by second generation Muslims with emphasis on the violation of rights granted in the constitutional Western democracies. In their eyes America and West are responsible for their miseries.
Whiners like Mr. Masud have yet to realize that like any self-respecting powerful nation America and West acts in its national interests, which includes controlling through regional hegemony political and energy related issues of Islamic lands. The overall strategy for America and the West is to contain radicals that may threaten to undertake aggressive political military actions outside of the Islamic majority lands and not to allow proliferation of Islamic norms that are at odds with Western norms in the constitutional democracies.
Serial Wars
Starting with the end of WWII America has been in an unending war mode, both Cold War and Active Wars. If it is not communism, it is the clash of civilization otherwise called War on Terrorism or the War to destroy al Qaeda and Taliban that threaten security of America and West. America is now officially preparing for a serial war mode for internal political reasons according to an article, "Serial war as a way of life" (Asia Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KG24Df01.html). Mr. David Bromwich has outlined the internal political compulsions for a new global military strategy in play in America; so who knows what lies next once the Afghanistan war is settled and over with?
The Vietnam War debacles led internal political compulsions for America to outsource to frontline states its small wars. After suffering a serious setback in 2001 at the hands of a handful of Western educated Arab terrorists trained in terror camps of the Afpakia region America retaliated by invading Afghanistan and Iraq. Afghanistan war in 2002 was and is now (starting in 2009) a war of necessity but the Iraq war (2003 to 2008) was a war of choice. America maintains that for Pakistan winning insurgency in Afpakia areas is a war of necessity; it is trying hard and pushing Pakistan to destroy al Qaeda and Taliban in the Afpakia area, but its success has been compromised by Pakistan"s unwillingness to redeploy most of its forces facing India. Will America be forced in near future to fight a war of choice in Pakistan?
Clash of Civilization and Demographic Pressure
In globally spread political struggles called the clash of civilizations nations that have relied on science and technology to maintain its military and economic power second to none have prevailed for last several centuries. The clash of civilization has its origin in different norms followed by followers of Islam and non-Islamic believers. There is no middle ground between social, cultural, political and economic norms followed by Western powers and that Muslims dominated by the Arab tribal norm prefer to promote, especially the concept of theocracy, gender based discrimination, religion based hate and intolerance, and economically impractical banking and financial practices, etc.
In light of these developments, nations that preach non-violence being militarily and economically weak for survival are doomed unless they invest heavily in preparing to defend against the potential invasions by ambitious powers for global domination or hegemony. Is it better to fight defensive war or adopt the offensive-defense doctrine of countries like America, NATO nations and even Pakistan remains to be seen? But with demographic pressures building in South Asia, it is not clear who will be winners in such wars?
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References & Notes:
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