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Jun-16-2009
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The birds eye view of troop strength for Pakistan and India
President Zardari in a recent visit (May 2009) to Washington DC boasted that Pakistani army strength is 700,000. Pakistan has deployed 110,000 troops to counter insurgency (COIN) operations on its western border. A ratio of 7 to 10 troops per insurgent suggests that Pakistan estimates strength of Taliban and al Qaeda guided insurgent force to be in a range of 11,000 to 16,000. Another guesstimate puts it between 30,000 to 35,000 insurgents suggesting that the deployed army strength for COIN operation should be twice of 110,000 if the army really wants to win this tribal war. Most of Pakistan"s 700,000 troops are deployed on its eastern border to counter an imagined enemy, India.
The strength and strategy of deployment or order of battle (ORBAT) of the Indian Army in brief is as follows:
The Indian Army at over 1.13 million active-service personnel and 1.8 million reserves is configured under six area commands (operational) and one Army Training Command (ARTRAC). Three of these area commands (Western, Northern and South-western) and the fourth, Central Command, with one corps (1 Corps) are Pakistan-specific. The Indian Army has 34 field divisions and thirteen corps. Eight of 13 crops are Pakistan-specific; the western area commands have a higher number of fighting elements in its infantry, mountain, armored and artillery divisions than the Eastern and Southern Commands.
In Kashmir, Pakistan army"s Force Command Northern Areas (FCNA) faces the Pakistan-specific western area commands and corps. After the Kargil mini-war, in 2004 the Indian Army instituted the "Cold Start (CS)" doctrine, which calls for integrated, quick operations against multiple targets without actually holding ground using a combination of limited, surgical strikes, hot pursuits, salami slicing, etc. The CS envisages the formation of eight Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) deployed close to the international border. The CS doctrine "aims at reducing the mobilisation time by disaggregating the cumbersome strike corps into more handy Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs), positioning these forces closer to the international border and gaining a head start by enhancing the ability of the defensive formations now termed as the "Pivot Corps" to undertake limited offensive operations. The initial gains made by the pivot corps are supposed to be exploited by the rapidly moving IBGs. The operations by the IBGs are envisaged to be closely supported by the Indian Air Force and, where possible, the Indian Navy. The objectives assigned to the IBGs would be deliberately kept shallow to avoid crossing Pakistan"s nuclear red lines.
Given the birds eye view of troop strength, it is to India"s advantage to let Pakistan maintain a high level of troops across from boarders to India. It solves two problems for India.
It ties down Pakistani forces in sight of Indian forces so its ability to make mischief is limited to waging wars and
It economically drains Pakistan as its troop strength is not supported by a sustainable self-reliant economy.
Transient American and Pakistani Interests
In 21st century an economically impoverish nation is just that; helpless and dependent on the diplomatic oil as Pakistan is on America and Arabs of Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
A postulate is that global powers have transient regional interests; that the sweep of their interests is global in nature and reside only temporarily on any region till a transient is resolved.
Under the Obama administration, the transition in South Asia and Middle East is taking place. The reality in the changing world is that American influence is waning.
The reality is that Pakistan has milked America and Arabs for the diplomatic oil since 1980s. For collecting billions in rent from 2002 to present Pakistan has managed America very effectively. With Arabs I am not so sure. Why?
If a nation is transformed over 30 years with about 20,000 madrassahs each graduating an average of 100 youth per year then the educational system is responsible for the estimated 60 million youth subscribing to radical Islam of Salafi/Wahabi/Deobandi/Sunni ideology to promote the 13th century Islamic interpretations. The chances for Pakistan to return to enlightened Islamic state of pre-1970s have diminished, perhaps irreversibly. Only time will tell.
Pakistan with growing insurgencies in tribal areas has started paying a heavy price for radicalizing its society with extremism in pursuit of its regional revanchism goal. In effect Pakistan"s first line of defense (the tribals) is being destroyed by its last line of defense, the army. It is not a pretty picture, even if it has managed to collect a few more billion dollars from America.
America is forcing Pakistan to neutralize its tribal warlords as America has concluded that these forces are detrimental and possibly counter productive for its interest in South Asia. America plans to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible without allowing Pakistan or its proxy - Taliban and al Qaeda - to occupy it. With or without Pakistani army"s cooperation it will be done, if necessary by occupying Baluchistan by force.
West has always wanted India in its camp but this development was prevented during the Cold War era. It took sixty years for the Cold War era to get proper burial and for America to come to a conclusion that in spite of its persistent opposition and embargoes India prevailed with its national interests. India has managed to protect and guard for last six decades its space and potential sphere of influence. You have seen nothing, yet!
With a multi trillion dollar economy growing annually by 7% to 9% on average for a decade, the West sees for the consumer goods and military hardware it has to offer a potentially booming market of 1.2 billion Indians. Without a booming economy as is the case with Pakistan the West would be just another military power. To maintain its supremacy West has to cultivate new markets for its continued economic boom.
Pakistan"s usefulness as a frontline state in South Asia has and continues to decline. America has failed in its quest to use Pakistan and Afghanistan to bring Central Asian oil to a warm port on Indian Ocean. With Iran-Pakistan having concluded and signed an agreement (at a later date India is expected to join to make it IPI project) to go ahead with pipeline projects to deliver natural energy products, American influence in controlling Iranian energy supplies to South Asia is steadily declining. With enhanced reliance on economic interdependencies Pakistan"s usefulness to counter India is also precipitously declining to protect any American regional interests.
Is America prepared to take on Pakistan? America knows that to regain its past regional supremacy it will have to control Baluchistan, if necessary by appropriate military action. Is Pakistan relevant as a viable frontline state for maintaining American hegemony in the Arab world when they now have Iraq in the bag, so to speak?
China Card
Pakistan has played China card in the past to its advantage; now, it is America"s and India"s turn.
Why are both India and America now playing China card? A multi trillion dollar Indian economy (India"s per capita income in 2008 doubled to Rs 38,084 or about $850) has made it possible for India to acquire high end civilian nuclear reactors for energy and military hardware such as IL-76 AWACS. India had tried in the past, but access was denied by the embargoes on the duel-use technology for India to serve American regional interests. China today is threatening American hegemony in South Asia and Far East. That is the reason China card is played; Pakistan is irrelevant in such calculations.
Siddharth Srivastava at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF04Df01.html claimed that India expected is to spend over US$50 billion in the period of 2007-2012 to modernize its defense forces. India"s is aiming at building an immediate strike force against Pakistan and longer-term deterrence against China. American is making necessary policy changes to accommodate India and ensure that America becomes an arms supplier to India.
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