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Jul-18-2009
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Introduction
Pakistani rulers and army generals completely underestimated the impacts including unintended consequences and insecurities, etc that radical jihadis will have on internal security of Pakistan. America never suspected that in 2001 its homeland security will be shattered as a result of direct attacks by a handful of Arab terrorists trained in areas now labeled Afpakia. The War on Terrorism from 2002 to 2008 destroyed Iraq and Afghanistan and delivered a windfall of billions in diplomatic oil ($12 billions from America and an equally large sum of Arab petrodollars) to economically shaky Pakistan. Pakistan continued to use its monetary windfalls to enhance its military power against it imagined enemy - India - instead of building well equipped defensive internal security forces to tackle extremists and terrorists lodged in safe havens of tribal and other parts of Pakistan. Pakistani army, under international pressure, is now engaged in fighting an insurgency and President Asif Ali Zardari is appealing international powers for help to improve its economy.
Pakistan became an American frontline state in 1970s after the fall of Shah of Iran to Iranian Revolution staged by Ayatollahs. The frontline state status boosted the flow of diplomatic oil to fuel the army"s global ambitions and agenda for strategic depth for economic growth. Pakistan exploited jihadi extremists/radicals and foreign aid to stay economically afloat. The unintended consequences for Pakistan of being a frontline state with a weak economy and an extraterritorial expansion or a strategic depth agenda are an addiction to economic dependencies and insecurities.
Insecurity induces feelings of hurt and discrimination associated with a loss of the cultural and scientific supremacy Muslims once enjoyed. Pakistani policies do not encourage youth, especially those at the bottom of the economic pyramid to be enlightened and open-minded to ideas of science and technology, and to non-Islamic cultures. Radicalized unemployed youth add to nation"s insecurity as being unskilled to earn a decent living they gravitate towards extremist causes such as the on-going insurgency to destabilize Pakistan.
Dictators
Public policies for the last five decades adopted by dictators (elected or not) did not focus on developing a sustainable self-reliant economy. Dictators seeking strategic depths focused on jihadi extremists and pursued an adventurous foreign policy by waging proxy wars. For deterrence Pakistan invested heavily in missile and nuclear armed 700,000 men army. They exploited for the last three decades its geography to extract diplomatic oil from America and Arabs to support its military strength. It is now getting addicted to foreign economic aid for survival.
Pakistan is a democracy with a mutilated constitution. Its politicians and the army generals have shown scant regard to the constitution, rule of law and human rights. The dictatorships by elected rulers and army generals have stymied independent institutions essential for a rule of law in the shaky Pakistani democracy. In 1949 it adopted the Objectives Resolution, which is included in the Annex of the current Constitution of Pakistan by virtue of Article 2A of the Constitution (1*) (*see, references). The resolution and doctrine of necessities have been invoked by military dictators to repeatedly compromise the 1973 constitution and overthrow elected governments of Pakistan.
Global Ambitions and Dependencies on Foreign Aid
Insecurities of Pakistan stem from the ruler"s global ambitions, its weak institutions, its promotion of radical Islam, its weak economy and dependency on diplomatic oil. For six decades Pakistan followed a failed foreign policy; it practiced revanchism; specifically, dictator Zia ul Haq vision was to establish next Caliphate across Eurasia.
The policy of revanchism followed since 1949 is supported by the seventh powerful army in the world. To secure billions in American aid and Arab petrodollars under dictator Zia ul Haq in 1980s Pakistan became America"s front line state to confront Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. As a developing nation, unlike India and China, Pakistan has failed to develop a robust sustainable self-reliant economy to support its huge army. It suffers from insecurity associated with dependency on foreign aid. The excessive dependency of Pakistan on petrodollars and economic aid is evident in the budget of about $31 billion with a foreign aid component of $9 billion for year 2009-10 (2).
Any development that results in a large inflow of foreign currency, including a sharp surge in foreign aid may cause the Dutch Disease. An unintended consequence of mismanagement of too much foreign aid and foreign direct investment may make Pakistan a candidate for the Dutch Disease. Some examples of wasteful allocation in the Pakistan"s 2009-10 budgets are found in a column by Dr. Farrukh Saleem (3).
Pakistan"s ambitions and American policy of regional hegemony coincided in 1980s. Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski was President Carter"s national security adviser (1976-79) and the business of jihad in Afghanistan originated during Carter administration. President Reagan in 1980s intensified the implementation of the "jihad" policy. Dr. Brzezinski published justifications for the war in Afghanistan in the Foreign Affairs journal of September/October 1997.
Eurasia is home to most of the world"s politically assertive and dynamic states. All the historical pretenders to global power originated in Eurasia. The world"s most populous aspirants to regional hegemony, China and India, are in Eurasia, as are all the potential political or economic challengers to American hegemony. After the United States, the next six largest economies and military spenders are there, as are all but one of the world"s overt nuclear powers, and all but one of the covert ones. Eurasia accounted for 75% of the world"s 6.8 billion population in 2008, 60% GNP, and 75% energy resources.
Collectively, Eurasia"s potential power overshadows America"s. Eurasia is the world"s axial super-continent. A power that dominates Eurasia would exercise decisive influence over two of the world"s three most economically productive regions, Western Europe and East Asia. A glance at the map also suggests that a country dominant in Eurasia would almost automatically control the Middle East and Africa.
Pakistan policy of a front-line state is at the root of its insecurity in South Asia. In exchange for the diplomatic oil, it is supposed to force its tribals and nations around Pakistan to submit to the will of America, Arabs and China; these three nations have patronized Pakistan. In addition it helps spread radical Islam by allowing operation of unregulated madrassahs by Saudi trained semi-literate teachers (4).
Agenda for Strategic Depth
The strategic depth agenda is simply an agenda for extraterritorial expansion to take advantage of political and military vacuum. In Afghanistan of 1994 there was a political vacuum; at Kargil Heights in 1999 there was a military vacuum. Pakistan tried and failed both times to capitalize on these two opportunities; strategic confusion dominates army leadership (3, 5 and 6).
Dictator Zia ul Haq had in 1980s envisioned occupation of Afghanistan for control of Central Asia markets. Pepe Escobar explained how Pakistan"s strategic depth policy turned into strategic nightmare (7). An army security agency is Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI). Mr. Escobar quoted an ISI officer who was commenting on the Pakistani government"s agenda and part played by American policy before the event of 9/11/2001.
1. The ISI officer in a briefing described how Iran is Pakistan"s economic enemy and how India is Pakistan"s political enemy.
2. During the 1990s the ISI theory was to get hold of the Central Asian markets.
3. The concept of strategic depth was that without a friendly government in Kabul, Pakistan would not have access to Central Asian states.
4. Drawing a parallel between the relations of Osama bin Laden and the CIA, and the relations of the Taliban with the ISI the Pakistani official added, "The CIA was basically the promoter of Osama. Then Osama turned against the CIA. It is the same with the Taliban and the ISI."
A Brooking Institute article (8) has documented the strategic vision of late PM Mr. Z. A. Bhutto in early 1970s and in 2002 dictator Musharraf offering justifications. President Zardari pleaded for foreign aid without mentioning that in pursuit of Pakistan"s strategic depth Taliban (6) were unleashed into Afghanistan by his wife, late PM Benazir Bhutto in 1994 (9). What we see today in Afpakia is the mess resulting from the political decision of a democratically elected government.
The first Afghan War lasted ten years (1979-89). As soon as Soviets withdrew in 1989 America broke away from supporting Pakistan. However, the political vacuum in Afghanistan allowed ambitious Pakistani Generals to embark on establishing a strategic depth (8) in Afghanistan that had been plunged into chaos by warring Afghan warlords from 1989 to 1994.
General Musharraf was the military advisor to late PM Benazir Bhutto in 1990s and on his advice in 1994 Mrs. Bhutto unleashed the Taliban forces from Pakistan"s tribal areas to occupy Afghanistan. As the dictator from 1999 to 2008 President Musharraf policies in Afpakia areas were responsible for human rights violations; he destroyed one and destabilized other of two nations, Afghanistan and Pakistan. For six years 2002 - 2008 using duplicitous policies General Musharraf collected $12 billion from America for Pakistan"s contribution to the WOT.
As soon as Taliban tasted power, the Generals of Pakistan lost control of them and by 1996 al Qaeda moved into Afghanistan to wage a global jihad - a civilizational war - against non-believers of America, the West and the rest of world in pursuit of establishing next Islamic Caliphate. Their first major terrorism success was the attack of 9/11/2001 on America. It started President Bush"s War on Terrorism (WOT) that has destabilized Middle East as America took the WOT to heartland of Muslim World in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Taliban was financed by Arabs. Under Taliban rule (1994-2002) in Afghanistan the world witnessed an Islamic fascist regime that left it in ruins (6).
Radicalization of Pakistan
The radical Islam teaches hate and intolerance of non-Islamic believers (10). Radical Muslims make inhospitable neighbors and induce distrust by invoking scriptures. Hatred of America, hatred of Westerners known as colonizers, hatred of Jews, hatred of India, and a kind of blind faith in the muslimhood of the Taliban is promoted by Pakistani elites to define its identity (3). America has yet to accept that in Pakistan they have a frenemy.
Pakistan rulers, media pundits and army have created an atmosphere for and promoted radicalization of its youth. Aid from America and Arabs was used to develop an infrastructure for fighting USSR that had occupied Afghanistan in 1979. Pakistan in 1980s allowed establishment of an estimated 20,000 madrassahs funded by Arabs. These schools produced an estimated up to 60 million radical youth over last 30 years. Pakistan"s population of 173 million (2008) is growing 2+% a year and its population is very young - the median age now is 18.2 years. Pakistan"s youth with age below 30 represent more than 55% in a broad based population pyramid. The radical youth were viewed as first line and army as its last line of defense against any invading foreign forces.
In 21st century Pakistan doesn"t need jihadi extremists to defend its borders; Taliban and as many as 50 other private militias are engaged in insurgency.
However, Pakistan has routinely used the radicalized youth to establish Taliban and other jihadi forces and private militias to conduct proxy wars in Afghanistan, Central and South Asia. The unintended consequences of pursuing revanchism with jihadi extremists are imagined enemies and associated insecurities, not to mention destabilization of Pakistan fueled by insurgency.
Insecurity and Unintended Consequences of Radicalization of Youth
Pakistani army is fighting a civil war at its Western territories against fundamentalist tribal warlord dominated Taliban and al Qaeda in exchange for American aid. The tribals are determined to live by the Arab tribal practices of suppressing human rights of women and non-Islamic followers. The tribal war of Pakistan has precipitated insecurity in civil society and created more than 2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).
In tribal Pakistan madrassahs are extensively used for purposes other than education. An Editorial (11) commenting on the Swat operations reported that, "(t)he goods discovered at the Taliban headquarters for Swat included 12 UN-registered vehicles that the Taliban had snatched. There were the typical tunnels where the warlords hid when they were attacked with heavy fire. There was a madrassah complete with four tunnels for storing rations stolen from NGOs and a huge cache of arms." Use of madrassahs as ammunition dumps and bomb making factory is also widespread.
In the enlightened Islam era (7th to 15th century) most madrassahs were associated with scholarship and development of Islamic science (10). That is not true in Pakistan. A commentator on quality of education in Arab funded and established madrassahs, observed (12) that "we have thousands of semi-literate "teachers" imparting religious education to students who come from the poorest segment of the society. The contrast is too obvious to be ignored by anyone who is serious about the state of the Muslim societies in a world increasingly becoming hostile to the way of life called Islam."
The Arab funded and established madrassahs (4) are not required to follow a curriculum set by Pakistani authorities and therefore, they have been hijacked by Arab ideology and tribal practices. Without firing a single shot, Arabs were able to radicalize youth in last 30 years. An Arab goal was to inhibit enlightened Islam that existed prior to 1970s in Pakistan. Arabs of Persian Gulf and Red Sea promote suppression enlightened Islam that existed prior to 13th century in lands along the Mediterranean Sea.
An economically challenged Pakistan is an equally significant force for destabilization of South Asia and induces globally felt insecurities, especially as Pakistan has provided safe heavens in its tribal areas to radicals of al Qaeda and Taliban leaderships. Pakistan is internally destabilized by the radicals and it is insecure as a result of spreading fundamentalism. Dismantling the infrastructure for radicalization of youth of Pakistan is not easy.
Diplomatic Oil as a Source of Revenues13
Pakistan has used its geography to gain billions in rent from America and Arabs. In stead of focusing on being self-reliant, Pakistan opted for long term dependency as it argued that in an atmosphere of the Cold War its geography was its ticket to economic gains needed to support its huge army and nuclear assets. As a consequence that Pakistan"s geography has turned in to a curse (7) as its army followed a flawed foreign policy for the last 25 years. Mr. Syed Saleem Shahzad has offered some interesting explanations (14).
Select History of South Asia (15)
Implementers of Pakistan ideology defined in the Objectives Resolutions (1) of 1949 are dominated by radical elements, especially media pundits, political leaders and army generals. History of Islam plays a unique and dominating effect on Pakistani psych 10). Geographically Pakistan is strategically located. With respect to trade routes Pakistan foreign policy for last six decades followed in the footprints of Turkey of 15th century. To extract political concessions related to the Kashmir problem and seek economic advantages the foreign policy impeded commerce by blocking trade routes, especially access to energy supplies from Central Asia to India through Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The ambitions of any Islamic state seeking economic growth through extraterritorial expansions or strategic depth are rooted in the history of Islamic Caliphates (10 and 15). Unlike radicalized Pakistan the Caliphates were enlightened Islamic states. The enlightened Islam from 7th to 13th century was tolerant of and open-minded to assimilating scientific ideas from other societies and cultures. The 13th century Muslim philosophers turned inward and rejected assimilation of ideas from non-Islamic societies and cultures. Fifteenth century onwards Islamic scholarship has stagnated.
Kashmir Issue (16)
Pakistanis have thrice tried and failed to resolve the Kashmir issue by military actions and by garnering the diplomatic support from its patrons. The Kashmir issue, now for the army is conducting low intensity proxy wars in South Asia using jihadi extremists of many private militias such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) or its new avatar Jamad-u-Dawa (JuD). The LeT/JuD with its globally spread tentacles may be the new al Qaeda. Americans have realized that active and retired ISI officers provide training and logistics to LeT/JuD operations (17).
At a recent meeting in Russia (the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, June 17, 2009) with Indian PM Dr. Manmohan Singh, President Zardari lost Pakistan"s Kashmir plank. Pakistan"s failure to crack down on LeT militia and the recent release of two of its leaders jailed after the Mumbai attack led to an angry exchange. There was a time when Pakistan wanted from India "movement" on Kashmir. Now India wants "movement" first, on terrorism.
Pakistan"s foreign policy had suited interests of its three patrons for over six decades but not any more. According to Boston Globe"s Mr. Selig S. Harrison "no new US aid commitments should be made to Islamabad until it takes decisive action to disarm Lashkar-e-Taiba in accordance with Article 256 of the Pakistan Constitution, which bars private militias."
Following the changes in American policy on the War on Terrorism, the global strategic environment is undergoing a transformation that potentially can shift to other nations (e.g. Iraq) the front-line state status, marginalizing Pakistan. Pakistan"s insecurities are amplified with a steady erosion of the international support for Pakistan, which is a result of forging increasing economic interdependencies among Pakistan"s patrons and India.
The brief history of radical vs enlightened Islam (10) offers a background on how it may have influenced Pakistani ruler"s foreign policy and why it is out-of-sink with 21st century operating international norms.
Concluding Remarks: Implications of Failed Foreign Policy and State of Economy
Pakistan for last two decades of 20th century followed an agenda to acquire strategic depth in Afghanistan to counter Iran and to control Central Asian markets. It also waged a proxy war to economically bleed India. The unintended consequence of trying to economically drain India using the proxy war strategy is internal destabilization of Pakistan itself. The economic indicators have deteriorated and it suffers economically (18).
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References & Notes:
(This blog is an unabridged version of 3-July-2009 Paper no. 3288 published by SAAG at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3288.html)
References:
1. Gazette of Pakistan, Extra, on Aug 15, 1973, No.F.24(1)/73-Pub. Late Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was the first to suspend the 1973 constitution that was adopted by consensus, not unanimously and promulgated at noon on Independence Day. The life of the original document was of four hours duration. At 1600 hours that same day, Bhutto suspended the constitution by ordering President Fazal Elahi Chaudhry to sign an order.
2. Daily Times, June 14, 2009.
3. The News, June 21, 2009; see also, "Signals from a failing state," by Khaled Ahmed, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009 712story_12-7-2009_pg3_6 for disclosures of wealth stacked away in Europe by corrupt rulers.
. Following is a quote from Dr. Farrukh Saleem (The News, July 5, 2009).
. The Taliban have neither tanks nor helicopters. All they have is AK-47s, pickup trucks, suicide bombers and their own distinct worldview (that rejects the current world order and proposes to replace it with an "anti-modern" ideology through an armed, violent struggle). To be certain, all of India"s tanks and infantry battalions are east of the LoC. The Taliban, however, control Khyber, Kurram, Bajaur, Mohmand, Orakzai, North Waziristan, South Waziristan, Hangu, Lakki Marwat, Bannu and Tank. Additionally, some 6,000 sq-km of Dera Ismail Khan are being contested. Also under "contested control" are Karak (3,372 sq-km), Kohat (2,545 sq-km), Charsadda (996 sq-km) and Mardan (1,632 sq-km). Kohistan is under "Taliban influence". Mansehra (4,579 sq-km), Battagram (1,301 sq-km), Swabi (1,543 sq-km) and Nowshera (1,748 sq-km) are all under "Taliban influence". All put together that"s a tenth of our landmass either under complete Taliban control, contested control or under Taliban influence.
4. The Madrassah Challenge: Militancy and Religious Education in Pakistan; By C Christine Fair; Vanguard Books, Lahore, 2009.
5. For a birds eye view of troop strength for Pakistan and India see "Transient Regional Interests of Global Powers," by Kishan Bhatia at http://www.blogs.ivarta.com/Transient-Regional-Interests-Global-Powers/blog-287.htm
. The failed Kargil adventure was an application of Pakistan"s "offensive-defense" military doctrine against India. The main purpose of "offensive-defense" doctrine is to "seize enemy territory of strategic importance which can then be used as a bargaining chip" in any future ceasefire negotiations. Ten years ago (July 1999) Indian forces evicted Pakistani forces from Tiger Hills and Tololing range of India"s Kargil Heights to reduce to dust General Musharraf"s "offensive-defense" initiative against India.
6. The Taliban and 50 more such private militias are a kind of people who don"t accept democracy, the constitution, fundamental human rights, equality among citizens or the sovereignty of parliament. Rasul Bakhsh Rais offered an interesting analysis of how Taliban emerged as militant and religious force and the part played by the ISI in Pakistan at http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009 7 7story_7-7-2009_pg3_2
7. Asia Times, Sept 29, 2001
8. Pakistan"s Strategic Vision: With and Without the Taliban, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2002/0322pakistan_behera.aspx .
9. Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/21/AR2009062101793.html . Pakistani politicians were coconspirators with the army; they actively assisting the military establishment in the 80s and 90s and later continued to use the institutions of the mosque and madressah to create sectarian and ideological divisions leading to militancy within the society (see, Talat Farooq, Politicians and Rah-e-Raast, http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=187772).
10. A brief History of Radical vs Enlightened Islam
. Islam is claimed to be a way of life, not just religion. The history of Islam shows that over last 14 centuries Muslims have experienced more than one way of life. Radical Islam has dominated Muslim lifestyle for last five centuries. Enlightened Islam preceded this transformation.
. Enlightened Islam was open to absorbing ideas from non-Islamic societies and cultures. For example, a madrassah in Central Asia in 15th century had scholars that studied astronomy, but such institutions have mostly disappeared from Muslim lands over last several hundred years. The enlightened Islam was known for its contributions to global understanding of science and technology.
. The accomplishments of enlightened Islam are obvious from a brief history of Islamic Astronomy and sciences. A glimpse at contributions of Islamic science to astronomy, math and science are occasionally on display in America; for example, a display titled, "Sultans of Science: 1,000 Years of Knowledge Rediscovered," is at the Islamic Da"wah Center in Houston, Texas through Sept. 7, 2009. Also see http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/life/religion/6513023.html for a news story on the display.
. Radical Islam came to dominate Muslim lands starting 13th century. Unlike enlightened Islam, radical Islam promotes Arab tribal life styles; it excludes non-Arab practices including exposure to science and technology, which is branded as of Western origin. A vast majority, 1.4 of 6.8 billion global populations, is represented by civilized Muslims and the radicals are not only threatening the civilized Islamic society but also that of non-Islamic population.
. Mr R. Upadhyay described the Saudi angle to the historical background of radical Islam in SAAG paper no. 3282, June 29, 2009, titled, "ISLAMISM," at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers33%5Cpaper3282.html.
. Bill Warner of the Center for the Study of Political Islam has done some pioneering scientific analysis of Islamic doctrines. He has found that about 61 percent of the Koran speaks ill of non-Islamic believers or calls for their violent conquest and subjugation, but only 2.6 percent of it talks about the overall good of humanity. The overwhelming measure of the stats -- 61% vs. 2.6% -- likely makes their implication impervious to subjectivity.
. Economic dependencies of Pakistan for petrodollars have allowed operation of unregulated madrassah funded and operated by Arabs. These madrassahs supply radical youth for the army to pursue a foreign policy of revanchism. Muslims the world over, including Pakistan, suffer from a feeling of hurt and discrimination. They feel the decline of Muslim power, of the cultural and scientific supremacy it once had. In stead of opting for proper solutions, such as modern education, to rectify deficiencies in Islamic science they look for scapegoats as excuse. An answer to their sufferings is buried in history, briefly out lined below.
. Pre-Islamic Arabian knowledge of stars was empirical; their knowledge was what they observed regarding the rising and setting of stars. The rise of Islam is claimed to have provoked increased Arab thought in this field. The foundation of Islamic astronomy closely parallels the genesis of other Islamic sciences in its assimilation of foreign material. The amalgamation of the elements of materials from other cultures and societies created an essentially Islamic science. These materials include Indian, Sassanid and Hellenistic works which were translated and built upon.
. The science historian Donald Routledge Hill has divided the history of Islamic astronomy into the four following distinct time periods in its history:
1. Assimilation and synchronization of earlier Hellenistic, Indian and Sassanid astronomy (700-825 AD)
2. Vigorous investigations, acceptance and modification to the Ptolemaic system (825-1025 AD)
3. Flourishing of a distinctive Islamic system of astronomy (1025-1450 AD)
4. Stagnation, where few significant contributions were made (1450-1900 AD)
. By the time of the visit of the Islamic scholar Abu al-Rayhan al-Biruni (973-1048 CE), India already had a sophisticated system of mathematics and science in place and had made a number of inventions and discoveries. [See, Blackwell, Fritz (2004), India: A Global Studies Handbook, United States of America: ABC-CLIO, Inc., ISBN 1-57607-348-3]. In 1030, Alberuni discussed the Indian planetary theories of Aryabhata, Brahmagupta and Varahamihira in his Ta"rikh al-Hind (Latinized as Indica). Biruni stated that Brahmagupta and others consider that the earth rotates on its axis and Biruni noted that this does not create any mathematical problems.
. The lessons from the brief history given above are:
1. A failure to acknowledge that Islamic scientific developments were build on the foundations laid by non-Islamic cultures promotes ignorance, hate and intolerance of non-Islamic followers.
2. From fifteenth century to present Muslims were unable to make significant contributions as they followed 13th century radical Islam ignoring modern science and technology.
3. The madrassahs of Pakistan set up by Arabs starting 1980s don"t teach/study sciences that madrassahs with followers of enlightened Islam in Central Asia of 15th century and those before 13th century in lands along Mediterranean Sea taught/studied.
. You reap as you sow.
11. BBC News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8147092.stm and Daily Times Editorial, May 31, 2009.
12. Dr. Muzaffar Iqbal, The News, June 5.
13. Distrust breeds insecurities. The distrust in international relations in past six decades is an out growth of the Cold War era policies. During the cold war era possessing huge army and nuclear weapons were the "means" to earn respect in the global village for leaders of the driven nations. The "means" entailed huge maintenance and continuous upgrading costs consistent with changing threat perceptions. China, Pakistan and India during last six decades acquired these assets. Only China and India embarked on successfully developing sustainable self-reliant trillion dollars economies needed to support the military assets.
14. Pakistan fights for its tribal soul, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KF12Df02.html
15. Historically India enjoyed intensive commercial activity for more than two thousand years with Europeans, Turks, Arabs of Persian Gulf, Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea (Spice trade, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spice_trade; see maps showing the Silk route and a sea passage around Africa).
. Europeans in 15th century embarked on finding a sea passage to lands east of Middle East as the Silk routes was blocked once Turks occupied Constantinople in 1453 with the fall of Byzantine Empire. For Europeans, the changes in political spectrum of Middle East triggered the "Age of Discovery" for explorations to find sea passages to India by going around Africa. With discovery of sea routes, the blockage of the Silk route for commerce became irrelevant in early 16th century; it lasted about seventy years.
. It appears the 21st century may be India"s "Age of Discovery" for alternate energy supplies - nuclear power plants, developing natural gas fields within India and exploring technologies for renewable energy including solar, wind and biomass power through applications of Agro-Biogenic technologies (http://www.agro-biogenics.com). Once alternate energy production technologies become common place in India its dependence on imported energy supplies by land routes is likely to diminish.
. An unintended consequence of Pakistan"s foreign policy of blocking land trade routes to India are that India is denied access to cheap oil from Central Asia and Iran to meet energy demands for a sustainable double digit economic growth. Using cheap coal and oil developing nations for last 150 years have dirtied the environment that has created a global environmental crisis. China starting 1970s contributed to the global environmental pollution as it ramped up additions to its coal and power based power plants to sustain industrialization to meet up to 20% a year growth in export demands and a double digit economic growth.
. The next age of discovery for an energy technology (ET) is not limited to India alone. In next five to ten years hopes are high for America, China and India to build a substantial lead in development of ET for clean power technologies to meet growing global demands for energy. All developed nations, China and India are now exploring development of home grown clean energy technologies that include renewable energy sources - solar, wind and biomass - in addition to state of the art technologies for fuel cells, batteries, nuclear power, etc. With inexpensive labor China and India are expected to add such manufacturing processes to meet global demands by creating innovative more and more energy efficient, clean power, low cost platforms.
. The age of ET is not just to counter global warming as the potential is high for masses choking to death on pollution. The world is adding 1 billion people every 15-20 years. By 2025 the demands for energy and natural resources are going to go through roof as more and more of up to 8 billion people will be living a high-energy-consuming lifestyle. The high efficiency clean power technologies are going to be next great global energy industry.
. The elements for improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon pollution are:
. Improved fuel efficiency standards for car - hybrid and electric cars
. Shifting power production from dirty fuels to clean power technologies
. Potential is high for development of sustainable cost-efficient technologies in next ten years or less for solar, wind, electric vehicles, nuclear and other innovative technologies
. For comparison, remember, globally, the USA is now home to two each of the ten largest solar photovoltaic and wind turbine producers and one of ten advanced battery manufacturers. Less than 15% of global renewable energy manufacturers are based in USA. The compilations of top industries by the investment bank Lazard show that most clean energy industries are located in Japan, Europe, China and USA.
16. Contrary to a linkage to religion for political advantage, the Kashmir problem in a nutshell is an issue of controlling sources of water to rivers flowing in South Asia that impacts security for one and insecurity for other of two nations. The choice for the two nations is to learn to cooperate and not use geography as an excuse to destabilize entire South Asia. Any attempts to be an effective "muhalle ka dada" (bully of the block) using inappropriate "jihad" ideology are unlikely to yield desired results. The offensive military capabilities are useless in presence of the nuclear deterrents.
17. B. Raman, http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers33%5Cpaper3291.html, SAAG paper no. 3291, July 4, 2009
18. Some consequences of 5 decades of failed economic policies are:
. Weak economy cannot adequately support its huge army and also provide for social programs.
. The population growth is pegged at 2+% a year and 50 to 55 million people in 2008 were very poor earning less than $1 a day.
. The projected economic growth in the 2009-10 budgets and for additional two years 2010-12 is less than 3% a year. It cannot sustain its per capita GDP at current levels. The economy is failing unless it is growing by 6 to 7% a year to neutralize detrimental effects of demographic changes.
. Poverty levels are estimated to grow by 10% a year for 2009-12 periods.
. For last five years an American journal has compiled a list of 177 states with a descending order of viability in the modern world; and for each of five years Pakistan was in the top ten "failed states".
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