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Dec-08-2008
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The Mumbai attack is the latest wake-up call. What happened to Mumbai is a preview of what may happen to America and NATO nations if terrorist organizers based in Pakistan are not neutralized in time.
A chronology of events that led to Mumbai mayhem is outlined in a map at WSJ Article
India has experienced terrorist attacks for over four decades. The Global Terrorism Database, START (the US National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism) is maintained at the University of Maryland. It shows that India faced more than 4,100 terrorist attacks between 1970 and 2004, accounting for about 12,540 terrorist-related fatalities or an average of almost 360 fatalities per year from terrorism in India. A University of Maryland statement said that the fatalities peaked in 1991 and 1992 when 1,184 and 1,132 individuals respectively were killed in such incidents.
A handful of terrorist attacks attracted global attention; for example, the 1993 Mumbai bombing, the attack on India"s Parliament in 2001, a hijacking of a plane from India to Afghanistan in 1999, an attack on Indian consulate in Kabul, Afghanistan in 2008, etc to name a few that were masterminded in Pakistan. Maulana Masood Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JM) was released from an Indian jail during the terrorists for hostage swap of December 31, 1999, following the hijacking of the Indian Airline Flight IC 814.
Mumbai mayhem of 26 Nov 2008 (26/11) is the latest; terrorists hit two luxury hotels, CST (Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus or old Victoria) train station and other targets; they killed at least 173 people, wounded several hundred persons and property losses were estimated at more than one billion dollars. Some pundits and TV commentators from New Delhi to New York are calling the 26/11 as India"s 9/11.
The analogies between the two attacks are:
1. In both cases the terrorists had chosen urban landmarks that serve as symbolic points of reference in this increasingly interconnected world.
2. Both attacks were unexpected, meticulously planed for their shock value and the utter unpreparedness of the security services.
But this is where the similarities end.
The metaphor "9/11" represents what happened in Manhattan and at the Pentagon in 2001 and also to its aftermath, in particular to an utterly misconceived military and judicial response, one that has had disastrous consequences around the world.
Concerned that Mumbai mayhem may result in India acting as America did since 2001, Pakistanis are expressing themselves. Average sane citizens are afraid of the price they may have to pay should India attack terrorist infrastructure along its eastern territory. The jingoistic media elites want to perpetuate denial of Pakistan"s complicity in Mumbai mayhem as has been the practice for last three decades or more in similar situations. The establishment warlords are suggesting that Pakistan should ignore potential American objections and relocate 100,000 troops deployed to neutralize non-state actors on its western front to its eastern front to counter potential Indian attacks.
Terrorists often act on what they sense the majority really wants but doesn"t dare do or say. Muslims maintain terrorists are a small minority, implying the rest are decent peace loving devout followers of peace, Islam.
The Mumbai mayhem kind of murderous violence may stop when all the good people in Pakistan, including the community elders and spiritual leaders who want a decent future for their country declare, as a collective that those who carry out such murders are shameful unbelievers who will not dance with virgins in heaven but burn in hell. And they do it with the same vehemence with which they had denounced Danish cartoons on February 6, 2006.
Media pundits on both sides of border write inflammatory news stories but they don"t make wars by definition. The majority in India and Pakistan may want peace but it"s the states that have power to fight a war. Peace will only be achieved by neutralizing the enemy at home in Pakistan and away from America, NATO and India.
War mongers should control emotional response to consider realities as Pakistan and India are being drawn into a war. War mongers of Pakistan are busy creating opportunities such as Mumbai mayhem for relocation of Pakistani armed forces from its western front to eastern front as if such a move can salvage potential for Pakistani army to fight two wars against multiple superior forces at each front.
A new administration will be in place in America in less than forty-five days. Having successfully concluded a USA-Iraq treaty, the withdrawal and redeployment to Afghanistan of American troops from Iraq should begin early next year.
Mumbai mayhem brings in to focus the Pakistani army"s operating practices: The Taliban of Pakistan, which includes LeT, JM, etc are to be manipulated to fight the military"s war in Kashmir and the Taliban of Afghanistan are to be covertly and strategically supported to minimize the perceived Indian influence in the region. Both Taliban are lashkars or irregular forces created by the army to instigate insurgencies, proxy and civil wars. They were created to give deniability for violation of sovereignty of targeted nations.
The targets are India, Afghanistan, America, Israel and NATO nations.
Sovereignty of India was violated yet again by non-state actors from Pakistan by attacking Mumbai. The evidence shared by India with America shows that the siege was initiated by LeT operatives from Pakistan. Data presented to American officials show that
1. Just two days before hitting the city, the group of 10 terrorists who ravaged India"s financial capital communicated with Mr. Yusuf Muzammil and four other LeT leaders via a satellite phone that they left behind on a fishing trawler they had hijacked to get to Mumbai.
2. Mr. Muzammil, who is the right-hand man to Mr. Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakvhi, the operational commander of the group, talked by satellite phone to the attackers from Pakistan when the gunmen were in the Taj and Oberoi hotels.
3. The entire group underwent rigorous training for up to 18 months in a LeT camp at Muzaffarabad in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir and at a camp near Rawalpindi.
4. One of ten terrorist was captured in Mumbai. He is now identified as Mohammad Ajmal Amir, son of Mohammad Amir Iman, a resident of the village of Faridkot in the tehsil of Dipalpur in [Pakistan] Punjab"s Okara district. Originally he was incorrectly identified as Muhammad Amin Kasab, Azam Amir Kasav and Azam Amir Kasab.
5. An Indian Muslim, Mr. Faheem Ahmed Ansari alias Abu Zarar before his arrest in 2007 had trained at the Muzaffarabad LeT camp, the same camp as the terrorists in last week"s attack.
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
LeT and JM are faces of al Qaeda operating from tribal areas of Pakistan. LeT activities were originally limited to the Kashmir"s independence. For the past few years LeT has also been active in the notorious and officially ungovernable "tribal zones" on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. As a member of al Qaeda the LeT is an all-terrain group with great political influence. It includes militants in every city of the country: Peshawar, Muzaffarabad, Lahore and even Karachi (Pakistan"s economic capital).
LeT is also known as Jamaat-ud-Dawa, and its chief is Hafiz Mohammed Saeed.
Since its creation 15 years ago, the LeT has been linked to the ISI, the formidable Inter-Services Intelligence agency that operates like a state within a state in Pakistan. Obviously, this link is not widely publicized. However, from the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl to the July 2005 attack on the Ayodhya Hindu temple in Uttar Pradesh, there is abundant evidence that the jihadist wing of the ISI has assisted the LeT in the planning and financing of various operations.
Worse yet, the LeT is a group of which A.Q. Khan, the inventor of Pakistan"s atomic bomb, was a longtime friend. Mr. Khan, one may recall, spent 15 years trafficking in nuclear secrets with Libya, North Korea, Iran and, perhaps, al Qaeda, before confessing his guilt in early 2004. Later pardoned by Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Mr. Khan remains perfectly free to travel within Pakistan.
Indian investigators are busy identifying within India the LeT ideological or religious "correspondents" in the vast Muslim community that sees itself (not without reason) as discriminated against by the Hindu majority. Still, there is very little doubt that the initiative, strategy and money for the assault on Mumbai came from terrorist leaders inside Pakistan.
In February 2007 two militants in addition to Mr. Ansari were arrested in the Indian-controlled section of Kashmir, they told police that Lashkar was looking to start slipping people into India from the sea to avoid heavily guarded land borders. The sea also provided a winter route to Kashmir for LeT members, when High Mountain passes crossing to India"s part of the state are often blanketed by deep snow.
Mr. Ansari at the time of his arrest had in his possession layouts drawn up for the Taj Mahal Palace & Tower hotel and Mumbai"s main railway station, both prime targets of last week"s attack, the police official said. Mr. Ansari also made sketches and maps of locations in southern Mumbai that weren"t attacked.
Now that America and NATO forces are actively involved in identifying and targeting for neutralization of suspected terrorist leadership in safe-heavens of tribal areas east of the Durand Line Pakistanis are demanding respect for Pakistan"s sovereignty forgetting that Pakistani army for last few decades has been overtly and covertly violating sovereignty of neighbors.
America and NATO are well equipped to handle Taliban of Afghanistan settled in safe houses in lawless areas - FATA, NWFP and Baluchistan - of Pakistan. America knows that going will be difficult but manageable as Pakistan is a nuclear nation. Is Pakistan willing to risk vaporization of its nuclear assets, if it should decide over American objections to withdraw from neutralizing non-state actors on its western front?
War in Kashmir has now spread to rest of India. America"s WOT from Afghanistan has engulfed tribal Pakistan. Two wars are inter connected as the common denominators are actions of Pakistani army at two war theaters and threats posed by the non-state actors hiding in safe houses in Pakistan.
All India has to do is to amass its forces across the border to force Pakistan to relocate its soldiers from western to eastern front. America and NATO with the President elect Barack Obama doctrine can and will neutralize non-state actors operating from safe houses east of the Durand line.
Flashy statements by Mr. Zardari made just before and since terrorist attacks on Mumbai are not likely to dissipate passions ignited by Mumbai mayhem. The current episode in Mumbai offers an opportunity to Mr. Zardari to prove that the army is firmly under his civilian control and it is committed to policy initiatives of his government. If Zardari really wants to move forwards on India, he may find it useful to look back first at Lashkars in Pakistan.
Mr. Zardari has a short window of about a month or two to dissuade India in not joining America, Israel and NATO to begin operations designed to neutralize the non-state actors in safe heaven of Pakistan. Interesting question is how Mr. Zardari in general and the army in particular handles the potential threat in making against Pakistan?
American media has published an article by Bernard-Henry Levy, the author of a book "Who Killed Daniel Pearl." Mr. Levy has an intimate knowledge of Pakistan"s political map and operations of Lashkars collectively known as Taliban of Pakistan.
Three days after the massacre, in a moment of anger and frustration that rings true, Pakistan"s President Zardari said: "Even if these activists (Mumbai mayhem) are linked to the LeT, who do you think we are fighting?"
The problem, unfortunately, is beyond Mr. Zardari. Like his predecessor, President Zardari lacks the means to break the back of criminal elements within the ISI and Pakistani military. To an even greater extent, he lacks the backing of those who associate it with the darker side of his own administration. And therein lies the challenge -- perhaps the most frightening of our era. After the bleeding of Mumbai, it is time the entire international community -- not just those in the region -- took notice.
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