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Mar-06-2009
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Historically, there are parallels between the India-Pakistan enmity and Franco-German revanchism from the Thirty Years" War of 1618-1648 up to 1945. Do we remember the Franco-German revanchism? Do we also remember how it was finally resolved to establish peace in Europe seen today?
The focus of this discussion is on Afpakia developments of concern to the rent payers. The rent is the diplomatic oil Pakistan needs for survival in its present state. Lahore Crisis has serious global implications.
There are some elite defenders of Taliban occupation of Pakistan. These elites should understand what is in contention is proliferation of the 13th century fundamentalism that is perceived as a threat to international peace. Saudis and other Arab states also practice and proliferated 13th century fundamentalist Islam through the spread of madrassah brand education, but they do not bite the hand - international customers - that pumps crude oil at their stations. I disagree with the contention that if America and the world can live with fundamentalist Saudi Arabia and Ayatollah dominated Iran then why not Taliban and al Qaeda dominate Pakistan?
Unlike Saudi Arabia and Iran, Pakistan is a rentier state that depends on the diplomatic oil from America and Arabs of Persian Gulf and Red Sea for survival. The rent from international donors supports not only Pakistani army but also the Taliban and all extremists they have nurtured for several decades now.
Addiction to oil, (consider, petrodollars for Arabs and "diplomatic oil" for Pakistan) makes dictators stronger, poor people poorer, democratic countries weaker and radical terrorist richer. America and the West"s addiction to oil at any cost has fueled both sides of on-going civilizational war otherwise in politically correct terminology known as War on Terrorism. Pakistan got started on the habit of collecting rent from America by joining SEATO and CENTO during the Cold War era of 1950s to 1980s. For Pakistan the rent has turned into an addiction since 1980s.
One should also be mindful of a flawed perception that the failure of USSR and its communism was due to losing the war in Afghanistan. While it certainly played a part, another major reason was failure of USSR"s economy fueled by petrodollars.
Following international political events in 1973-74 oil prices zoomed from about $10/barrel to up to $80/barrel. Russia at the time was second largest oil exporter. Flushed with unanticipated financial windfall the Russian dictators expanded their patronage system by subsidizing all that was necessary to align public to the communist causes.
Then came President Reagan to White House and he convinces Saudi Arabs to flood oil markets with a four fold increase in crude oil production from 2.5 million barrels/day to 9 million barrels/day to drop oil prices to as low as $17/barrel in early 1980s. With oil revenues reduced in 1980s to about 20% of what they were in 1970s, Russia couldn"t afford to continue subsidizing what Russians and internationally, others in their sphere of influence were now addicted to having at nominal prices. Russia started heavily borrowing internationally during Brezhnev era but when Mikhail Gorbachav came to power (1985-1991) the game was over and the USSR and its communism collapsed.
In above narration lies the lesson for nuclear and missile armed Pakistan that it can"t survive without international "diplomatic oil" to sustain its military power.
It is true as a nuclear and missile power Pakistan has achieved a degree of respect that makes it immune from attacks by international powers. But as the losses to insurgents in the tribal war shows Pakistan is being internally destabilized and the Lahore terrorist attack is an indicator that Pakistan may be on its way to implode as USSR did in 1980s.
Senators John Kerry, and Dick Lugar, Vice President Joe Biden and others (like the Atlantic Council, the IMF and the Asian Development Bank) want money to finance Pakistan"s emergence from current dark days. This is the borrowing-and-buying-your-way-out-of-a-hole approach to governance. It cannot and will not work.
The sum total of the Indian state -- its civil servants, police officers, judges, and politicians -- defined a clear path in the aftermath of the Mumbai mayhem (Nov. 26, 2008) and proceeded to execute it. Because of its strong economy, and a few percentage (but manageable) deficit the Indian Government"s annual budget is supported by tax revenues, so that Indian politicians can do what Pakistan being a rentier state can"t do.
Pakistan is like the Arab states. Pakistan"s government uses "diplomatic oil" for survival and Arab states depend on revenues from black gold. In both situations people"s contribution is minimal and hence there is feudal warlord"s mentality to promote 13th century fundamentalist Islam.
Pakistani ruling elites and army Generals are in a state of denial that astute observers of political scene in Pakistan have known for some time now. Some elites faced with facts and situations that are inconsistent with their preconceived notions either blame the Lahore terrorist attack on fate or "khufia haath" - hidden hand. Their actions are fueled by the diplomatic oil from donor nations.
Most Pakistani elites have yet to understand that they are now targeted by the forces they have encouraged for several decades to go for extraterritorial adventures. They are now stepping in to mine fields - Taliban and other extremist forces or private militias - they prepared to destroy the imagined enemy to the east.
Some elites had alleged that Mumbai mayhem was made possible for failure to provide adequate security by Indian authorities. We know that no nation, including America is able to protect itself against a determined group of terrorists, especially those trained in commando practices and who are promised to dance with virgins in heaven should they die for causes promoted by the privileged class.
Otherwise how else can anyone explain why the Army Generals have failed to defeat insurgents in Swat and rest of tribal areas? Lahore terrorist attack is an example of the reach of insurgents from tribal areas to urban centers of Pakistan.
Failure of the Generals and ruling elites elected or not, can be explained by the fact that their actions are guided by the rentier mentality developed during last several decades. The rents collected from America, Persian Gulf and Red Sea states and repatriations by overseas Pakistanis account for about a third of $25 billion annual budget for Pakistan to keep Pakistan afloat. Pakistanis are not paying enough to sustain the army and government; hence following the adage, "with no taxation, there is no representation" they are ignored by the rulers and the democracy suffers.
With global economy in turmoil petrodollars revenues have precipitously declined for the Arab states as oil prices have droped from a high of $147/barrel to less than $40/barrel. The international community"s shrunken treasuries are being channeled on stimulus packages to revive devastated economies at home. The laid-off ex-pats are returning home. The surplus revenues have disappeared; that were available in past for supporting Pakistani army"s addiction to rent and that were necessary for sustaining extremists for last three decades. Economically starved the extremists are turning against the army. The army has lost control of extremist who are now internally taking Pakistan apart in the name of the 13th century Islam.
Petrodollars enabled Arabs of Persian Gulf and Red Sea in 20th century to revive the 13th century fundamentalism responsible for destruction of enlightened Islam that existed from 8th to 15th century along the Mediterranean Sea. They are responsible for proliferation of believers of the 13th century Islam to Pakistan and elimination of moderate Islam represented by Sufi and Ahmadiya sects that dominated pre-1970 Pakistan.
There is a stark parallel between Franco German Revanchism and India Pakistan Enmity.
Events that took place during Reagan presidency may have been coincidences, but facts remains that his initiatives at least hastened disintegration of USSR. President Reagan in collaboration with Saudi"s and President Zia-ul Haq was responsible for the birth of Jihadi culture in Pakistan. Although USA withdrew as soon as the USSR was out of Afghanistan, Pakistani Generals used jihadis to embark on an ambitious plan of extraterritorial expansion.
However, the Generals lost control of Taliban as soon as Taliban tested power and al Qaeda moved in to set in motion the civilizational war or WOT.
Visionary leaders of any other country would have been disheartened by the events that unfolded in Afghanistan during 1996-2001 and especially on the day - 9/11/2001 - America was attacked by al Qaeda operatives but not the commando president of Pakistan. He was the military advisor to late PM Benazir Bhutto and she was responsible for unleashing Taliban on Afghanistan in 1994. Musharraf milked America for $12 billion over six years before his fall about a year ago.
From 1979 to 2008 Pakistan got used to maintaining a nuclear and missile armed army with more than half-a-million force, which it now has to maintain. Pakistan is not an industrially advanced nation as are China and India among emerging nations. Among its limited economic resources the rent is the primary option.
As long as Pakistan was riding tiger (extremists) the rent payers were happy. Now that Pakistan has dismounted, the tiger is ready to devour Pakistan and the global powers know they will be next targets.
If the foreign funds dry up as may be the case in near future, as crude prices remain less than $40/b then economically Pakistan may be doomed as the steady stream of rent is likely to dry up.
That leaves for Pakistan to do in the next decade what Germany did in 1940s after nearly three hundred years of laying claims to territories controlled by France. The peace between two European giants became a fact of life only after Germany was militarily neutered.
Now, go figure out why international community is unlikely to accept occupation of Pakistan by Taliban and al Qaeda that have threaten global peace for more than a decade.
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