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Jun-09-2009
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South Asian Terrorists Global Reach
In addition to nuclear capabilities of Pakistan the breaking news (mid-May 2009) reports demise of the Tigers in Sri Lanka and reelection of Congress party dominated coalition called UPA (United Progressive Party) headed by PM Manmohan Singh in India.
Terrorism dominated parts of South Asia starting 1970s and its scale was such that it acquired global attention. Sikh Terrorists were militarily defeated in 1984 by the Indian Armed forces and Tamil LTTE forces were defeated in May 2009 by Sri Lankan army. Pakistani army is still actively trying to defeat Taliban and al Qaeda forces in the trial areas on its western border with Afghanistan. America is deeply engaged in bringing down terrorists still threatening global peace and internal stability of Pakistan.
The unintended consequences of promoting low intensity proxy wars through terrorism in each case have led to internal political instability and insurgencies. Warlords in each of three terrorism dominated nation"s murdered influential politicians and instigated insurgencies to challenge the writ of the central governments. For ending Sikh insurgency, Mrs Indira Gandhi paid for it with her life in 1984. Although Tigers are eliminated from Sri Lanka a hope is for no more blood shed. Tigers claimed life of Rajiv Gandhi in 1991 for India"s foolishness in helping Tigers in Sri Lanka. Taliban in Swat (2009) are aggressively being challenged and eliminated by the Pakistani army and already the Taliban and al Qaeda have issued notices that President Zardari, PM Gilani and may be COAS Kayani are on their hit list.
The common denominators for three cases are:
1. Each South Asian nation carved out of the British India inherited a bureaucracy of Brown masters to perpetuate British administrative policies for governance. Where dictatorships, elected or not, are in power the British administrative policy influences continue to dominate.
2. Warlords given to terrorism were created by the local governments following questionable policies. In one case, the local dictator in 1980s received billions in petrodollars and military aid from America and Arabs states of Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
3. Once the warlords in each organization - Sikh Bhindranwale in Punjab, India, Tamil Prabhakaran in Sri Lanka and Mullah Omar of Taliban in Pakistan - tested power, their mentors lost control over them and subsequent events got out of control of the concerned governments. America and Arabs of Persian Gulf and Red Sea played a major part in creation and maintenance of Taliban starting 1980. America, starting 1980s in general and especially since the 9/11/2001 terrorist"s attacks has paid a heavy price for its involvement in creation of Taliban.
4. Creation of warlords in each case allowed continuation of the British India policy of cultivating local warlord dependencies to keep the masses suppressed to facilitate colonial style governance by the Brown masters.
5. Each extremist organization exploited emotional appeal to extract financial support from overseas citizens in the name of creating an independent or semi-dependent territory in defiance of the writ of central government.
Unlike other two only Pakistani rulers have and continue to use its extremists to force America and Arabs pay in diplomatic oil or rent to maintain its missile and nuclear armed 700,000 men army. To a degree Pakistan is justified in forcing Americans and Arabs to offer aid and petrodollars as in fighting the Cold War they were exploited by Americans and Arabs. The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton on May 19, 2009 acknowledged that Washington had not been consistent in its dealings with Islamabad and that US wronged Pakistan for 30 years.
In the process Pakistani rulers developed a dependency on American and Arab handouts that they are now unable to shake off. Pakistan"s weaknesses in pursuing or financing its nuclear ambitions with the diplomatic oil from international community may boomerang two ways:
1. If unable to control and manage the warlords that are destabilizing it internally Pakistan"s existence in the long run may be jeopardized
2. If Pakistan fails to strengthen its economy and also fails to shed its heavy dependence on the diplomatic oil, it may become a target for international intervention for its on-going revanchist"s activities.
As has been experienced in general in India"s Sikh dominated Punjab and is expected of in northern Sri Lanka now that they have quelled insurgencies, peace in and prosperity for South Asia will prevail once Taliban and al Qaeda are subdued and warlord responsible for revanchists mentality are neutralized by Pakistan.
Nuclear Pakistan
The warlord mentality of the missile and nuclear armed Pakistan has forced it to become an economic basket case in the global village. Americans and Arabs have exploited since 1980s Pakistan"s dependency on the diplomatic oil or the rent to achieve their foreign policy goals. In the process, they have allowed Pakistan to become a radicalized state for which they are paying a heavy price. American has spent annually a couple of billion dollars in aid to Pakistan starting 2002 to present, not to mention loss of American soldiers in Afghanistan. If Taliban in 2009 should continue as is feared with take over of Pakistan, it may pose a serious threat to Pakistani establishment as well as to the national interests of America and Arab states.
Many American media pundits including Mr. Bret Stephens of WSJ (Op-ed, "Pakistan"s Existential Challenge, The trouble for a country defined mostly by what it is not" at
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124208442748008601.html) are increasingly discussing Pakistan and its nuclear capabilities, pointing out how it poses a threat to America and its allies. Mr. Stephens, in my opinion has correctly asked and answered the question, "what kind of state simply accepts that its judicial and political writ doesn"t actually run to its internationally recognized boundaries?"
In a candid interview on the CBS 60 Minutes show, the US Defence Secretary Robert Gates acknowledged that Pakistan"s intelligence agency ISI keeps ties to the Taliban as a "strategic hedge" due to uncertainty about the future of the war in Afghanistan. It shows that Americans are finally acknowledging the reality that has forced them to deal with Pakistan"s duplicity on a daily basis.
Mr Stephens" arguments however lacked certain realism. For example, he didn"t mention that Pakistan is a rentier state. Its rulers do whatever a nation asks it to do once they provide Pakistan diplomatic oil or billions of dollars in military aid. A part of this deal from 1980 to 2008 used to be not to challenge or question Pakistan"s nuclear weapons assets and associated development programs. That has now changed, thanks in part due to notorious Dr. A. Q. Khan"s public confessions that for a couple of decades he was engaged in nuclear weapons proliferation to enemies of America.
In exchange for American help, starting 1950s in general and 1980s in particular Pakistani leaders have carried out American Administrations wishes to get where it is at today. It is not an accident.
In exchange for billions of petrodollars from Arabs of Persian Gulf and Rea Sea it has radicalized its population by allowing establishment and management of an estimated 30,000 madrassahs with Salafi/Wahabi/Deobandi/Sunni extremists trained in Saudi Arabia for over 30 years. My estimate is if each madrassah produced 100 radicalized students per year in 30 years Pakistan has produced 30 X 30,000 X 100 = 90 million students with radical Islamic education. Even if only a fraction of one percent of these radical madrassah graduates turn to terrorism we can explain what we see today happening in Pakistan. It is also not an accident.
Arabs, not America, are the real winners of the Cold War and they achieved it without firing a single shot. They systematically and stealthily radicalized most of Pakistan by sponsoring madrassahs that produced mujahedeen to fight the first Afghan war (1979 - 1989) and all that followed in last twenty years. Arabs of Persian Gulf and Red Sea prefer spread of the radical Islamic interpretations of 13th century over the enlightened Islam that existed in Pakistan prior to 1970s and in lands along the Mediterranean Sea before 13th century.
Some Pakistani Op-ed writers are also questioning foreign policies of Pakistan. In an Op-ed, "Reassessing the threat" at http://thenews.jang.com.pk/arc_news.asp?id=9 Mr. Talat Masood questioned the warlord mentality of Pakistani rulers. Mr. Masood concluded with a question, "Why can we not learn from others if our experience of failed policies is no guide?"
Simply put rhetorically the question is, "Why not indeed?"
Judging from Mr. Masood"s commentary before he asked the question he identified many details correctly but by comparing two South Asian nations to Canada-America, he compared apples to oranges.
Here is why? Unlike Canada, a minor power compared to USA, from the day of Pakistan"s independence on Aug. 14, 1947 Pakistani leaders have behaved as revanchists.
If one really wants to compare South Asian rivalry for extraterritorial land grab then a better choice is a comparison with two European tribal wars of 20th century. Germany was ruled by dictators, elected or not, in first half of 20th century as has Pakistan been for last 60 years.
Pakistani pundits, rulers and educators have yet to realize that lessons from world history are not apparent when one is forced to restrict learning only Arab history in the name of religion. Pakistani leaders have learned nothing from WWI and WWII - two tribal wars of Europe.
In the German-French rivalry for several hundred years until 1940s, Germany was revanchists" nation as Germany claimed a part of present day French territory. It was finally resolved by Germany starting and losing both wars, being occupied by allied forces and forced to disarm after WWII. Europe has finally settled its centuries old revanchists historical past in favor of economic development and peace.
Pakistani pundits should just take a serious look at developments starting 1940s to present to figure out what political changes were instituted by Europeans who fought tribal wars to achieve peace and prosperity they enjoy today. Then they should compare it to the history of wars by two missile and nuclear powers of South Asia to figure out why economically Pakistan is a basket case.
I will let the readers imagine what is the solution for South Asians to live in peace and prosper. The obvious solution for South Asia doesn"t include following the 13th century Islamic practices of extraterritorial expansion for economic growth. Nor does it include developing dependency on global powers and petrodollars for the diplomatic oil to support a missile and nuclear power with 700,000 men army trained to fight an imagined enemy to the east.
Finally, the notorious Dr. A.Q. Khan in an Op-ed titled, "Tolerance in Islam?" at http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=178543 has quoted a handful of guiding principles from Islamic scriptures. Presumably Dr. Khan thinks he can convince millions of madrassah graduates (who are illiterate in English) to cease and desist from on-going terrorism and destabilization of Pakistan?
I ask Dr. Khan who is being naive and ignorant of warlord mentality?
Those educated and induced to a warlord mentality are represented by jihadi forces that act against innocent bystanders - the primary victims of radical fundamentalism that has now taken over Pakistan.
My questions to Dr. Khan sahib are, "Did you remember the guiding principles you quoted in your current article when you were engaged in nuclear proliferation? Why do you think your hate and intolerance of America was justified but not that of terrorist and warlords now destabilizing Pakistan?"
Last but not least, hate and intolerance of non-Islamic believers is a sure way to self-destruct in 21st century global village. Mr. Bill Warner of the Center for the Study of Political Islam has done some pioneering scientific analysis of Islamic doctrines. He has found that about 61 percent of the Koran speaks ill of non-Islamic believers or calls for their violent conquest and subjugation, but only 2.6 percent of it talks about the overall good of humanity. The overwhelming measure of the stats -- 61% vs. 2.6% -- likely makes their implication impervious to subjectivity.
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