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Feb-09-2009
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Sixty-one years ago leadership of two newly independent nations in South Asia embarked on two divergent paths for nation building. Ignoring consequences of the choices of 61 years ago, in 2009, to frame an Op-ed by mining statistical economic data alone may lead to stepping on a "dung-pile", if not careful. For example, a pundit used statistical data to frame an Op-ed to rhetorically ask, "How long will India and Pakistan continues to beg, borrow and steal to fight each other?"
In the global population of 6.7 billion India and Pakistan account for less than 7% poor with daily income of less than $1. An estimated 25% of 1.1 billion Indians and more than 35% of 170+ million Pakistanis earn less than $1 a day. According to a Center for Research and Security Studies based in Islamabad (www.CRSS.pk ) report in December 2008, 70% of Pakistanis have income of less than $2 a day and 49% of people live in absolute poverty. The rate of poverty in India has been decreasing and that increasing in Pakistan for last decade because of divergent political realities and structural economic changes in two nations.
Historically, Islamic radicalism is rooted in the culture of violence associated with Muslim sects. India is home for nearly 80% Hindus and less than 14% Muslims, mostly Sufi, and minorities Shia and Barelvi sects. Barelvi is a Sunni Sufi sect. Pakistan is about 95% Muslims with 80% Sunni (Salafi, Ahle Hadith or Wahabi, Hanafi, and Deobandi) and most of rest Shia or Shiite. Radical Muslim sects based on hate and intolerance decrease in the order Sunni, Shia, Sufi and Ahmadiya or Qadiani. Ahmadiya sect, now globally spread to 190 nations, was established at Qadian (Pakistan) by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad in1889 and outlawed in Pakistan by late Prime Minister Z. A. Bhutto in 1970s.
The partition of British India was precipitated by the departing British who accepted the argument that Hindu and Muslim cultures of South Asia were different. A hyphenation theory or a model hyphenating Pakistan-India was commonly used prior to 1990s to indicate poorly performing economies of two nations. The model may make sense prior to 1990; the "old" model is now invalid as structurally the economies of two nations are on two independent paths.
A postulate is that with poverty comes extremism. As a percentage of respective GDPs the military spending in Pakistan is about twice that of India. Wishful thinking pundits postulate that a peace dividend may help reduce military spending to alleviate poverty and thus extremism in South Asia.
Hyphenation of Pakistan-India on cultural as well as economic basis is misleading as the hyphenation model ignores the political realities of past 61 years. Muslims any where and especially in South Asia are not homogeneous communities. For example, in 1947 only a portion of Muslims of British India elected to be in two geographically separated East and West Pakistan. In 1971 heterogeneous cultures of West and East Pakistan was responsible for its breakup creating Bangladesh east of and current Pakistan west of India. In general Pakistani establishment and state supported extremist warlords embrace Islam with medieval Arab tribal norms. Muslims of India with an exception of a radicalized tiny minority practice South Asian political, social, cultural and economic norms in general represented by Hindus (see, Islam in India and India"s Islamist Groups).
In January 2009 the PBS (Public Broadcasting System) broadcasted, "The Story of India." The PBS documentary presented how India survived upheavals (PBS documentary); with a timeline of last 70,000 years the history of India should be of global interest. A review, of "A Story of India" appeared in WSJ or log on to pbs.org (WSJ).
The essay narrates relevant history and observations to examine issues related to political realities of two South Asian nations. It suggests that the best antidote for poverty is growth, not war supported by the state sponsored extremist warlords and certainly not by inflammatory articles in media of both nations. In a globalised world in 2009, future of South Asia is linked to the roles adopted by leaders of two South Asian nations to regional hegemony by the sole super power.
The WWII (1939-1945) followed WWI (1914-1918) about two decades later possibly because the economic terms dictated by the allied forces were too severe for the loser Germany to live with in peace. Realizing the folly of not having helped Germany after WWI, the Truman administration invested in economies of Europe. The result so far is not only the additional World Wars are avoided between allies and foes in Europe but former foes - (west) Germany, Italy and Japan - have turned into staunch American allies. Economic progress is crucial to the political forces that favor peace. Without it, even small acts of sabotage - Mumbai mayhem, for example - can derail a peace process. But supported by economic momentum, a peace process can resist violent shocks that meant to derail it."
Wars are made by state actors, not starving poor and certainly not by journalist prone to inflaming communal fires. A select few poor are controlled by the privileged class to wage wars. A promise of dancing with 72 houries or virgins in heaven beats living a miserable life in slums. South Asia"s privileged class has learned to look above and away from the slums populated by masses. Poor suffer from poverty of thought, material resources and attention. An imagined superiority of culture and inferiority of power has reduced parts of South Asia to an epicenter of terrorism.
An "outlier" is a statistical observation that is markedly different in value from the others of the sample. Politically and economically India is an outlier among dozens of nations that become independent in 20th century with demise of colonization by West European powers.
Some slums in some parts of world offer opportunities for enterprising poor to lift themselves out of poverty if poor are willing to work hard. In case of India I recommend examining background of a movie, "Slumdog Millionaire" that was nominated for 10 Oscars in 2009. The slum dwellers of Mumbai work hard to improve life. The slums of some other nations are described in a book, "Outliers" by Malcolm Gladwell (2008). To avoid stepping into a dung-pile, IMO, first political commentators should engage in a continuous education in current developments and study recent discoveries in the social and political sciences.
For about 50 of 61 years many pundits and international political operatives have hyphenated Pakistan-India in dealing with social, cultural, economic and political problems of two South Asian nations. America hyphenated Pakistan-India for nearly 50 years until a decade ago; now it is Pakistan-Afghanistan. Some pundits maintain that a reversal of the delinking of Pakistan-India by the State Department may be in works. For the Barack Obama"s State Department South Asia may be a double hyphenated region.
Mr. Richard C. Holbrooke, the Chairman of the Asia Society issued a report, (Asia Society) "Delivering on the Promise" outlining strategies for advancing US relations with India. President Obama has appointed Mr. Holbrooke as special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan.
What are chances Mr. Holbrooke may yield to the double hyphenation theory? Will he be swayed by past and current practices of the British Foreign office? Will he be swayed by some influential pro-Pakistan consultants to and outdated views of entrenched bureaucrats in the State Department? Does he have an out-of-box solution for South Asia?
Potentially, the double hyphenation theory may be an indication of a denial of what is on the regional-political horizon.
The strategic thinking of Pakistani warlords is known for a denial mindset;
1. Deny India trade and trade routes to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
2. The preferred front line state is ready to play the China card to deny America regional hegemony if they refuse to pay rent to keep Pakistan economically and militarily well supplied.
The strategic thinking or logic capabilities of the generals and warlords have been documented.
1. In 1971 the generals had claimed that the defense of East Pakistan was in the West and the policy led to disastrous consequences for Pakistan.
2. In 1990s General Musharraf convinced late Benazir Bhutto to unleash Taliban to secure a strategic depth in Afghanistan.
To the general"s disappointment, once Taliban tested power, the army lost control of Taliban and al Qaeda moved in to dominate Afghanistan. A group of al Qaeda operatives delivered a spectacular attack on America in 2001 destroying two towers of the World Trade Center in New York and damaging the Pentagon in Washington D.C. It set the stage for America"s War on Terrorism (WOT).
The fruits or the folly of seeking the strategic depth are identifiable to keen political observers. To exploit America the commando President Musharraf implemented a duplicitous policy in 2002. He joined American WOT, successfully persuaded America to let al Qaeda and Taliban operatives escape to Pakistan. The army covertly settled al Qaeda and Taliban of Afghanistan operatives from Tora Bora Mountains in tribal Pakistan east of the Durand Line and extracted rent of about $12 billion over next six years. The CRSS has reported statistical data for the spread of terrorism within Pakistan for last several years and commented on the price paid by the tribal and some urban area Pakistanis. It is not over, yet!
A new chapter is beginning across the Durand Line under President Barack Obama"s leadership. The drone fired missile attacks on suspected terrorist leadership hideouts in tribal areas have resumed.
The elected civil government of Pakistan under President Asif Ali Zardari is weak and disoriented, while the army continues to dominate Pakistan"s foreign policies.
The Military Inc has monopolized a significant portion of revenue stream generated by business assets to support the army and generals. The Military Inc contributes more than 1% to Pakistan"s GDP.
In response to political pressures resulting from the 2008 Mumbai mayhem the army and the warlords in 2009 are focusing on the Eastern front while American and NATO forces are gathering strength on the Western Front. The number of soldiers is expected to increase to 100,000; about 40,000 increase in the military man-power strength.
In 2008 Pakistan lost control of American supply lines to Afghanistan from Khyber Pass. Responding to this development, America has secured a northern supply route through Russia and Central Asian nations to maintain in 2009 a pipeline of supplies to the American and NATO forces in Afghanistan.
A highway built by India linking Kabul to Iran is now open to keep flow of Indian goods through Iran to Afghanistan.
In addition to some pundits, the double hyphenation theory is supported by UK, a third rate, has-been global power according to India. Britain"s attitude may be a result of failures to secure lucrative business deals from India.
Some first rate powers - America, France, China and Russia to name four - have secured in 2008 billions of dollars in business from India. A number of multibillion dollars deals recently signed and many more in the pipeline are for civilian nuclear plants, advanced aircrafts and duel use technologies based hardware supplies. China and India are well on their way to boost bilateral trade to $50+ billion/year by 2010, India being China"s third best trading partner.
Contrast between India and Pakistan"s relationships with the first rate powers is an eye opener. To assert its regional dominance one nation is banking on ever increasing business relationships and other is counting on rent collections from America and playing the China card to promote a regional status quo for survival.
So solutions to eliminate poverty and extremism are:
1. South Asia needs leaderships that offer brilliant visionary political support for economic development and
2. To create opportunities for the slumdogs to work hard to lift themselves out of poverty.
Peace will prevail in South Asia when all good people in Pakistan, including the community elders and spiritual leaders who want a better material life for poor and a decent future for the country
1. Denounce the regressive medieval warlord practices and
2. Declare as a collective that those who carry out terrorism are shameful unbelievers who will not dance with houries in heaven but burn in hell.
And they do it with the same vehemence with which they had denounced Danish cartoons on Feb. 6, 2006.
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