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Oct-16-2009
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America"s offshore strategy of war (Part I) has yielded many unintended consequences. Both America and Pakistan are paying heavy price in material, military and civilian losses, not to mention sufferings of millions in tribal Afpakia areas. Dr. Farrukh Saleem"s article, "Great American Failure" (http://thenews.jang.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=202682) offers partial details of costs so far incurred by America.
Nuclear Proliferation by Pakistan
Nuclear proliferation activities of Pakistan have been known for several years. Dr. A. Q. Khan who was credited with developing Pakistan"s nuclear weapons now has provided details of his part in nuclear proliferation. Sunday Times disclosed extent of nuclear proliferation (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6839044.ece) by Dr. Khan. It included exchanging and passing blue-prints and equipment to China, Iran, North Korea, and Libya done at the behest of the Pakistan government and military. He named PM Benazir Bhutto and General Imtiaz (PMs defense advisor; both are now dead). Bhutto may have authorized the general on orders from ISI bosses.
""We put up a centrifuge plant at Hanzhong (250km southwest of Xian)," Khan wrote. "The Chinese gave us drawings of the nuclear weapon, gave us 50 kg of enriched uranium, gave us 10 tons of UF6 (natural) and 5 tons of UF6 (3%)."" UF6 is uranium hexafluoride, the gaseous feedstock for an enrichment plan."
The Sunday Times expose also implicates the U.S and other western powers, who the article says, basically shoved Islamabad"s rampant proliferation (while blaming it solely on Khan) under the carpet in order to get Pakistan"s cooperation in the war on terror.
For current Pakistani rulers the unintended consequence of this disclosure is an embarrassment but for USA it has become a headache as it now has to deal with a nuclear North Korea and Iran, (GDP = $0.842 trillion*/$0.343 trillion**) which in few years may declare it is a nuclear power.
Nuclear Proliferation and American Security
There are now eight declared nuclear nations. Pakistan was seventh nation in 1998 to conduct two underground explosions to join ranks of nuclear states. The significance of the development should be understood in terms of Pakistan"s deteriorated economy to sustain it as a viable nuclear power. Economically Pakistan and North Korea are basket cases (see table below).
Comparison of GDP for eight declared nuclear states
1. USA: $14.3*/14.0** trillion
2. China: $8.0*/$4.8** trillion
3. India: $3.3*/$1.2** trillion
4. Russia: $2.3*/$1.2** trillion
5. U.K.: $2.2*/$2.0** trillion
6. France: $2.1*/$2.5** trillion
7. Pakistan: $0.43*/$0.16** trillion
8. North Korea $0.40*/$0.026** trillion (2007*/2008** data)
Note: All (*) PPP (purchasing power parity) adjusted GDP figures are estimates for 2008 reported at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html and (**) nominal GDP estimates are for 2009. The 2009-14 periods" annual nominal GDP estimates are at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_%28nominal%29_estimates
Pakistan"s nuclear and missile armed forces have more than 0.4% of its population (173 million in 2008) in the army. Pakistan spends on its military forces nearly 5% of its GDP. To economically sustain its military power Pakistan relies on collecting rent in exchange for fighting regional wars for benefactor"s interested in maintaining a regional hegemony. Pakistan has become a client state of its benefactors, which includes America, Saudi Arabia and China.
The 21st century is rapidly heading towards a multi-polar world. Economies of China, Russia and India are growing at seven to double digit percentage rates. Five of seven nuclear nations belong to P-5 group and enjoy permanent seat with veto rights in UN. In terms of the PPP adjusted GDP India ranks above three of five permanent UN members. Economically China is expected to surpass Japan ($4.3*/$5.0** trillion) in couple years and America in about fifteen years. The economically powerful troika and P-5 members - America, Russia and China - are at top of the nuclear pecking order; William Perry and James Schlesinger, "America"s Strategic Posture 2009" (http://www.missilethreat.com/repository/doclib/20090522_strat_posture_report.pdf)
Afpakia War
In 21st century America is fighting a war of necessity in Afpakia. Increasing levels of war fatigue is appearing in public polls. Public opinion is turning against policies of President Obama. A concern is that the economic problems at home may not allow America to fight a sustainable long duration war in Afpakia. Afghanistan is claimed to be a graveyard of empires.
Max Boot observed (WSJ, Sept 2, 2009) America tried the offshore strategy and the result was 9/11. Mr. Boot listed potential adverse consequences of cutting losses and running away from Afghanistan not only for America but also for nuclear and missile armed Pakistan. He opined that al Qaeda and Taliban will return to power to fill political vacuum in Afghanistan and they may target Pakistan"s nuclear assets unless Pakistan comes to a political agreement. Both outcomes potentially will not be in America"s national interests.
According to Dan Senor and Peter Wehner (WSJ, Sept 3, 2009), "(t)he war in Afghanistan is a crucial part of America"s broader struggle against militant Islam. America"s failure in Afghanistan would have calamitous consequences for both Pakistan and American credibility. It would consign the people of Afghanistan to misery and hopelessness. Afghanistan would once again become home to a lethal mix of terrorists and insurgents and a launching point for attacks against Western and U.S. interests. Neighboring governments-especially Pakistan with its nuclear weapons-could quickly be destabilized and collapse."
A potential for another terrorist attack on America is a likely outcome if America fails to destroy leadership of Taliban and al Qaeda. The potential unintended consequences for America may be hard to accurately project but it can be extrapolated from recent experiences. In the least impacts of costs in human toll and property losses due to terrorist nuclear attack on America will far outweigh the economic drain of engagement in the Afpakia to stabilize both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Politics of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Secularism
The ISI trains private militias of jihadis or non-state actors (http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/columnists/ayesha-siddiqa-the-militarys-ideology-599). For political expediency the ruling elites and opportunist army of Pakistan claims they are secular. Pakistan employed since 1947 a strategy of war incorporating jihadis for exploiting elements of religion. Jihadis are first and the army last line of its defense. The on-going insurgency by jihadis is an unintended consequence with significant opportunity costs for Pakistani strategy of opportunity wars.
The jihadi terrorists have now turned against Pakistani army and civilian soft targets all across its urban centers. In September-October, 2009 a series of terrorist attacks occurred in Pakistan. One of the deadliest attacks was on army"s GHQ (General Head quarters) in Rawalpindi while COAS Ashraf Kayani was attending meetings there on October 10. ("GHQ attack highlights Punjab threat" Dawn, Sunday, 11 Oct, 2009 and "The Punjabi Taliban," http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers35/paper3457.html). The attack has highlighted the threat not just from militants in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan but also from South Punjab province. "South Punjab has become the hub of Jihadism," Pakistani analyst Ayesha Siddiqa wrote in a magazine article last month.
The successful October 10 attack was carried out by 10 well armed South Punjabi terrorist under leadership of Aqeel or Dr. Usman who was captured but other nine were killed by army commandos. They had taken 50 hostages, but only 39 were rescued and 9 escaped from terrorist captivity. Reports are terrorists and people (at least 20; some army officers) died in the 20-hour operation. The Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for a brazen weekend attack and Taliban spokesman claimed it was only the first in a planned series of strikes (http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/04-ttp-claims-responsibility-for-hq-attack-qs-11).
In an attack on October 11 at least 41 died (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8302055.stm). The BBC has tabulated 8 more terrorist attacks (June 5-October 9) in this report. It isn"t over, yet!
Pakistan used its religiously conservative military for collecting billions in rent by participating in America"s offshore strategy of war. America not only provided economic aid but also sold military hardware including F-16 fighter planes that are useless in fighting terrorists aligned with Taliban and al Qaeda. Post the 9/11 America has known that the ISI not only continued to maintain links with Taliban and al Qaeda but also helped them settle in safe heavens of Afpakia. Pakistan intends to use American military hardware for potential war against its imagined enemy to the east.
The Pakistan has used religion as a motivating factor from the time when Col Akhtar Malik planned the first offensive to capture Kashmir in 1947-48. The use of jihadis was part of a larger package of mixing religion with state strategy of war right from the day Pakistan became independent in 1947 under Mohammad Ali Jinnah, a liberal-secular leader called Father of the nation. Gen Ayub Khan used jihadis for the failed Operation Gibraltar against India in 1965. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, another liberal-secular leader was first President of Pakistan 1971-73 and then Prime Minister (1973-77). Bhutto favored the policy of using jihadis to the country"s perceived military advantage. For instance, Bhutto personally came to congratulate the hijackers of an Indian Airlines flight in January 1971. PM Benazir Bhutto authorized invasion of Afghanistan by Taliban in 1994 and Pakistani army lost control of Taliban by 1996. Taliban with al Qaeda ruled Afghanistan (1996-2001) until both al Qaeda and Taliban were bombed out of Afghanistan by American retaliation for terrorist attacks of the 9/11.
The pragmatic-nationalist army is not driven purely by religious instincts in pursuing its goals. It has used jihad since 1980s for its strategic advantage by establishing an infrastructure for training jihadis. Religious identity is used in some form to meet political and military-strategic objectives. All such plans generate opportunity costs; for example, jihadis today are challenging the Pakistani state. The jihadis were created by the ISI with a specific plan to fight the war in Kashmir. The camps for training of Ajmal Kasab and nine other terrorists by the LeT (Lashkar-e-Toiba) to carry out the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks were set up by the ISI to win the war in Kashmir. A report at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/30/world/asia/30mumbai.html?hp (Network of Militants Is Robust after Mumbai Siege) discloses the connections of the ISI and its militants.
The country"s ruling elite and the army have traditionally used madrassah brand education to inculcate students with religion and the jihad philosophy. Starting 1980s in support of and encouragement from America to fight the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan it established an estimated 20,000 madrassah using Saudi larges and semi-skilled clerics trained by Wahabi clerics of Saudi Arabia. But it has not yet formally adopted the Saudi model for state-making. In Pakistan the Islamic norms of social justice or Shariah operates along with a judiciary that is not bound by it.
The Future
The Pakistan economy was in trouble for 2008-09 and it will continue to be for several years to come, It needs about $10 billion (Rs700 billion) to fill the budget deficit and additional$16.6 billion to bridge the trade deficit. Pakistan"s minister of state for finance recently estimated that its resources were at Rs1.78 trillion and expenditures was at Rs2.46 trillion. Pakistan"s trade policy called for export at $18.8 billion while its import bill for 2007-08 was $35.4 billion.
In September 2009 Pakistan appears to have consented to military operations (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KI26Df01.html and http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/world/asia/02pstan.html?_r=1&ref=asia) against militants and al-Qaeda in tribal North and South Waziristan on the border with Afghanistan in exchange for billions in American aid (NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/25/world/asia/25islamabad.html?_r=1&ref=asia), other nations and world organizations. Pakistan"s economy is being kept afloat by foreign donations and an $11.3 billion loan from International Monetary Fund. America and the West continue to bear the opportunity cost of its offshore strategy of war and provide Pakistan military hardware not suitable for fighting the on-going insurgency.
The Friends of Democratic Pakistan Summit (New York) included 26 countries and international organizations. Pakistan"s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmud Qureshi, in the presence of two special envoys for Pakistan and Afghanistan - Mr. Richard Holbrooke (US) and Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles (UK) - briefed press after the September 2009 summit meeting. He said the gathering had unanimously declared military operations against the Taliban in the Malakand area a success and that Pakistan would follow a similar model in the tribal areas - a clear hint that the government had agreed to send armed forces into the Waziristan.
American politicians need to work hard at home so that political pressures won"t derail progress being made in the region. A long while ago in my blogs I had speculated that the road to peace in South Asia will originate with peace in Afghanistan. It appears that American policy makers and media hacks have now started talking about actions to stabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan to protect and enhance stability of India (http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/2009/09/afghanistan-india.html).
The future belongs to the region. A multipolar world is in making. With America and all other nations helping, the nations of South Asia have to live in peace and accelerate development by empowering its abundant population with skills globally in demand to generate wealth. In 21st century with three nuclear weapon powers (India, Pakistan and China) in the region the days of economic growth by acquiring extraterritorial land using practices of warlords of 20th century may be coming to a desirable conclusion.
Concluded
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